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BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...?
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BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? |
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Subject: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: MGM·Lion Date: 23 Sep 15 - 05:05 AM I just bought a ticket for the next National Lotterty 'Lotto' draw. A printout came with it, stating, "This Friday [in the Euromillions 'mega Friday' draw] we are making 5 UK millionaires with each also winning a first class trip round the world staying in the lap of luxury". We are always being assured that the machines operating the draws are programmed to be entirely random in their selection. Can anyone explain, please, to a mathematical moron with little or no actuarial grasp, how they can they thus promise any specific minimum number of winners at any level, without some sort of interference in the integrity of that random element which they guarantee? I find this completely mystifying. ≈M≈ |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: Megan L Date: 23 Sep 15 - 05:24 AM The five will be chosen from the raffle numbers each euro millions ticket has. |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: Steve Shaw Date: 23 Sep 15 - 05:30 AM I imagine that it's a separate draw which is more of a raffle-style game. The Lotto already has a raffle attached to the twice-weekly draw, with either 50 or 100 winners of twenty grand. I won a prize in the raffle at our Wildlife Trust meeting on Monday. A somewhat girly travel washbag, shopsoiled, that leaked like a sieve when I washed it. Story of my bloody life. I'm thinking of having it dyed. |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: GUEST,Shimrod Date: 23 Sep 15 - 06:08 AM "I'm thinking of having it dyed." What colour, Steve? As to MGM's question, it's probably (geddit?) something to do with sample size. The bigger the sample (i.e. number of tickets sold) the more likely it is that the pre-chosen 5 winning numbers will be bought ... could be talking out of my bottom, of course! |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: Steve Shaw Date: 23 Sep 15 - 06:28 AM Shocking pink, by the way. |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: MGM·Lion Date: 23 Sep 15 - 08:29 AM Shimrod -- But if any winning numbers are 'pre-chosen' then all pretence of random selection must surely be lost? The raffles are supposed, surely, to be as 'random' in their selections as the main Lotto itself. I still can't see that the contradictions implicit in the statement in my OP have been resolved. The organisers still seem to me to be speaking with forked tongue. ≈M≈ |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: GUEST,Shimrod Date: 23 Sep 15 - 09:04 AM "But if any winning numbers are 'pre-chosen' then all pretence of random selection must surely be lost?" Not really. If you buy one of the pre-chosen numbers, you win. At least, I have always assumed that that's the way it works ... possibly? The winning numbers are probably pre-chosen randomly - put all of the possible numbers into a big (electronic) pot and 'pre-choose' the winning numbers by drawing five out at random. And then award a prize to anyone who picks/buys one of those five numbers. Shocking pink! Brilliant! I prefer that colour for my "special" nights out! |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: MGM·Lion Date: 23 Sep 15 - 09:10 AM But the numbers are shown on television being randomly generated as we watch. There can surely be no preselection compatible with what we see happening before our eyes on the screen? ≈M≈ |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: Dave the Gnome Date: 23 Sep 15 - 09:33 AM It could be the other way round. All the raffle numbers that have been purchased are put into a randomiser so we are ensured a winner or five. If all the possible numbers, including unpurchased ones, are randomised there is a good chance that some of the ones generated would not have been bought and therefore cannot possibly win. |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: GUEST,Shimrod Date: 23 Sep 15 - 09:43 AM Well I suppose that it's not necessary to 'pre-choose'. All you do is, after as many tickets as possible have been sold, put all possible numbers into the 'electronic drum' and choose 5 at random. Anyone who has bought one of those randomly selected numbers wins a prize ... possibly? This is probably a better method than the one that I made up earlier! I've never taken too much notice of the Lottery ... so I'm making this up as I go along ... but, nevertheless, that's how I'd think about doing it. |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: Megan L Date: 23 Sep 15 - 09:59 AM Mgm the euro millions lottery draw made with the ball machine will draw the lottery, the 5millionaires however will not come from that machine which is the modern version of sticking your hand in a bucket of raffle tickets that have been purchased by those coming in the door at a show. You know how many prizes you have to disburse and draw that number of tickets from those sold. |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: MGM·Lion Date: 23 Sep 15 - 10:01 AM I do it every time. The only way to be sure of not winning is not to enter. And over the years I have won a total of £1,283.50. Not a profit, but some consolation for how much I might have lost, which I have not computed. Most wins were £10's, which was the previous minimum for 3 numbers win; + a few since the minimum went up to £25. My best has been £194 for 4 numbers in May last year. So one keeps on trying! I am reminded of my poor father, who did the football pools every week. He never won; but the month after he died, my late wife & I, who were still sorting his house & what he left, found a cheque for him in the post, for having won a small prize on Vernon's as his standing entry hadn't yet been cancelled. Nice bit of Sods' Law, eh? ≈M≈ |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: MGM·Lion Date: 23 Sep 15 - 10:03 AM Thanks, Megan. I think I follow. But I still feel this at odds with the avowed principle of absolute randomness. |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: Rapparee Date: 23 Sep 15 - 10:16 AM Mathematically, you can have complete randomness. In practice we can't achieve it because of flaws in our "machinery." But you could set a computer to keep tossing out numbers of a certain number of character, say from 0 to 99. If there are six numbers (as an example) to be chosen the odds would be 1 in 99 for each of the six numbers (the odds are the same for each "draw"). It's been a long time since I worked probability problems, but the odds of all of the numbers coming up in any particular order (say, 08 67 32 00 08 83) are astronomically against you holding a ticket with those numbers in that order. You're more likely to step outside and be squashed by a falling asteroid -- which is why I don't play lotteries. And the statement "Somebody Has To WIN!" is nonsense because often there is no winner at all for a particular draw. |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: Dave the Gnome Date: 23 Sep 15 - 10:51 AM "Somebody Has To WIN!" is nonsense because often there is no winner at all for a particular draw. Not necessarily, Rap. Using the method both Megan and I described there has to be a winning ticket. Now, whether that winning ticket is ever claimed is a different bucket of prawns! |
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Subject: RE: BS: How can the Lottery 'guarantee'...? From: GUEST Date: 23 Sep 15 - 11:17 AM Put all the numbers that have been sold in a long electronic list in any order. Pick five numbers at random between 1 and the number of tickets sold. Look up in the list which those 5 are. |
