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BS: UK fall in violent crime
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Subject: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: IanC Date: 23 Apr 14 - 09:11 AM Got to be some good news somewhere, I suppose. I felt the tenor of this article was very encouraging. The UK Peace Index, from the Institute for Economics and Peace, found UK homicides per 100,000 people had fallen from 1.99 in 2003, to one in 2012. :-) Ian |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST,Eliza Date: 23 Apr 14 - 09:27 AM I feel sorry for the 99% of a person who died in 2003. (Perhaps he wasn't all there?) |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Keith A of Hertford Date: 23 Apr 14 - 09:37 AM This is an international phenomenon. One theory is that the removal of leaded petrol is involved. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Ed T Date: 23 Apr 14 - 09:42 AM Crime rates in Canada follows a similar trend, down in 2012 to the lowest in 40 years. Crime rates in Canada |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Keith A of Hertford Date: 23 Apr 14 - 10:05 AM http://www.economist.com/node/21582041/print Even in countries where crime overall continues to decline rapidly, such as Britain, certain types of property crime—such as pickpocketing and shoplifting—have risen with unemployment (the lure of mobile phones, not yet as hard to steal as cars, doubtless plays a role). Violent crime recently ticked up ever so slightly in the United States, and is rising in a few other places, such as France. And in many places police numbers are now falling, which may bode ill if policing has done a lot to drive down crime. But the sheer scale of the drop—and its broad persistence in the face of the deepest economic depression in a century—make a new crime wave seem unlikely. Policing is still improving; heroin and crack-cocaine consumption continue to fall; and no one is likely to reintroduce lead into petrol. The period of rising crime from the 1950s through to the 1980s looks increasingly like an historical anomaly. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Musket Date: 23 Apr 14 - 10:39 AM All statistics are subjective and subject to the old apples and pears routine. International comparisons aren't always useful as crimes may be graded differently and figures for prevalence, conviction or reported etc get thrown in the same trough, if it proves your point. The World Health Organisation tend to release as much data as they can with their health commentary to allow meta analysis, as international speculation can be unhelpful. Presumably the same applies to crime figures. Whatever, we should be optimistic that it appears UK homicides have fallen over time, and by a fairly hefty rate. Considering the new Muslim under the bed thread regrettably just started, together with Bliar's attempts to justify his post, the fall in homicide is in sharp relief to attempts to split society further than it already is. Good news stories. There are enough out there, but they don't feed shareholders of newspapers and they don't feed paranoia of fools. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST,leeneia Date: 23 Apr 14 - 11:06 AM Violent crime is dropping because people are getting warier of illegal drugs, and fewer people are using them. Unfortunately, those who are using them are getting in very bad shape and are committing more crimes and worse crimes as their minds deteriorate. Apparently, it really is true that you can't fool all the people all the time. Remember the terrible 'crack years'? They are over. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Keith A of Hertford Date: 23 Apr 14 - 11:24 AM Musket, the fall in crime is real. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Nick Date: 23 Apr 14 - 01:44 PM Why I like living in Yorkshire... look at the map Apart from the small minded (white) racist moron who murdered someone in Easingwold a few years ago, there is remarkably little homicide since 2011 on a line from Bridlington across to Morecambe Much of the reduction in violent crime I thought had been attributed to the reduction in levels of drinking which makes a lot of common sense to me. Though just in case it's petrol I'll stick to my diesel. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Dave the Gnome Date: 23 Apr 14 - 02:04 PM It is indeed good news but I have been wary of crime statistics since my wife's purse was stolen a few years back. She was in Manchester Central Library when distracted by a young couple messing about immediately next to her. Thinking something was astray she immediately checked her handbag, which she had foolishly left open and hung on her chair, and her purse was missing. She went to the police station to report it and they refused to log it as a crime as she had not actually seen the theft! How many crimes like these go unreported because the police don't want their crime rates to rise? How many are not reported altogether because the victims know full well the police can do nothing anyway? But still, presuming that unreported crimes vary at the same rate as reported ones, the drop can only be a good thing. Cheers DtG |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Ed T Date: 23 Apr 14 - 03:08 PM The ratd of violent crime and the lower level variety may bd two differeng thjngs, with differing factors. I suspect that drugs, domestic, and mental issues fuel much of the violent crime. I often have noted that the local police frequently state that tte victims of a violent crime "knew each other". Possibly greater public awareness of methods to reduce less violent crime, like pick pockets, and car and house breaks (including security systems) has had some benefits. Where I live, it is not infrequent to see in the news that security cameras have assisted in capturing criminals in action. I suspect that thiis alone, has deterred some lower level crime. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST,Musket Date: 23 Apr 14 - 05:22 PM I said we should celebrate that crime is falling. I get told it is falling by a contributor who didn't quite get the grasp of reading what I put. (Actually, I addressed the thread which said homicide is falling, but let's not confuse fools. I refer the dishonourable gentleman to the thread I addressed him on earlier. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST,Eliza Date: 23 Apr 14 - 05:30 PM Nick, your clicky of the map was fascinating. The part of Norfolk where we live, west of Norwich, is completely blank. We have one of the lowest crime rates (any type of crime, not just homicides etc) in the country. Why do we now say 'homicides' and not 'murders'? (And why 'autopsy' instead of 'post mortem'?) |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Musket Date: 24 Apr 14 - 06:22 AM Same reason why so many younger people go up at the end of sentences. Did you know Eliza? Due to influence of foreign TV and cinema, especially from The USA, BT had to make it that ringing 911 had the same effect as ringing 999? There were reported instances of teenagers ringing 911 to get emergency services so the link had to be made.... |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST,Eliza Date: 24 Apr 14 - 09:06 AM Gee, Musket, I guess I unnerstand. But I hope we keep 'innit'. I absolutely love 'innit'. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST Date: 24 Apr 14 - 09:17 AM .. and I'd like to hear an American say "Wazzock" or "Pillock" or "Arse".. Though give them their due, I have heard some Yanks starting to use the word "Wank", so there's maybe some hope yet for a revival of good old fashioned British Culural Imperialism.... |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Ed T Date: 24 Apr 14 - 09:42 AM I noticed today on CNN, that, as port if their punishment, some of the crew of the sunken ferry in South Korea were shamed by being paraded in public (I am unsure if they have been convicted of a crime). I suspect it is part if the countries crime deterrent. In many western countries, this would go against "the rights" of anyone accused of a crime. Additionally, in many western nations, crime and criminals are popularized in magazines, the internet, books, tv entertainmentnews programs, tv mini-series', movies, songs, and games...there are even trading cards for serial killers. Quite a difference. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Musket Date: 24 Apr 14 - 11:59 AM Yeah, but they think Wank used to sing ballads on Grand Ol' Oprey...... |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Ed T Date: 24 Apr 14 - 02:11 PM When I hear the word wank, it sounds like a bad attemptvat describing the past tense of wink (he wanked at me). :) It is never used where I live. If I used it, I would likely get a stare, as if to say "wtf, are you an old geezer who cant get the energy up say masterbate, or play with yourself, anymore? |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Dave the Gnome Date: 25 Apr 14 - 10:47 AM Wanker is a perfect description for people who only please themselves. I find it very cathartic to shout 'Wanker!' at the top of my voice to the white van man who goes up the empty right hand lane of a roundabout approach and then turns left. I get some funny looks when I have the windows open though... Back to serious matters. It is a bit disturbing that sexual crimes have increased but I believe that is down to the aftermath of the Jimmy Saville debacle. I think the police are now ensuring that reports of sexual crime are taken more seriously. Hopefully that is not decreasing the focus on other crimes but is, rather, adding to the safety of teh public. Cheers DtG |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: IanC Date: 25 Apr 14 - 11:17 AM I was wondering if there had been a similar reduction in violent crime in the USA over the same sort of period. In the UK we're beginning to think that maybe the increase during the last quarter of the 20th Century was the exception to a largely peacable situation rather than a permanent change in what was happening. Some information would be very interesting. :-) Ian |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Thompson Date: 25 Apr 14 - 11:24 AM I don't believe this statistic. What it means, really, is that *prosecutions* for violent crime are down. At least that's the way it is where I live; there are fewer police and those are overstretched, so they're not going to prosecute for things that they would have brought to court a few years back. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: IanC Date: 25 Apr 14 - 11:34 AM Thompson It's hard to fake this one as murder stats are unlikely to be hidden. It's actually not prosecuations but reported crime too which, although it can be manipulated, isn't so easy. Believe what you like, of course but I feel quite free to disagree with you. Ian |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Keith A of Hertford Date: 25 Apr 14 - 11:39 AM Ian, this is from the article I linked to very early in this thread(post5) "Both police records (which underestimate some types of crime) and surveys of victims (which should not, but are not as regularly available a source of data) show crime against the person and against property falling over the past ten years in most rich countries. In America the fall began around 1991; in Britain it began around 1995, though the murder rate followed only in the mid-2000s. In France, property crime rose until 2001—but it has fallen by a third since. Some crimes are all but disappearing. In 1997, some 400,000 cars were reported stolen in England and Wales: in 2012, just 86,000. Once upon a time in America Cities have seen the greatest progress. The number of violent crimes has fallen by 32% since 1990 across America as a whole; in the biggest cities, it has fallen by 64%. In New York, the area around Times Square on 42nd Street, where pornographers once mingled with muggers, is now a family oriented tourist trap. On London's housing estates, children play in concrete corridors once used by heroin addicts to shoot up. In Tallinn you can walk home from the theatre unmolested as late as you like." |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Ed T Date: 25 Apr 14 - 12:58 PM Even if the crime statistics only refer to prosecutions (I believe they go much broader than that, and include all reported crime and crime detected by police), if the information is collected, processed and analyzed in a consistant basis, the annual figures should reflect the crime rate trends. The folks who process the information normally look for and take into cobsideration other factors which would skew the figures. As to unreported and undetected jcrime-it's like trees falling in the forest, if nobody is there. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST,Musket Date: 25 Apr 14 - 03:44 PM I suppose you can hyper analyse statistics. I feel that the general trend is positive and the headline figures reflect this. Start to delve deep and you end up questioning not the raw statistic but why it appears. Keith just mentioned cars being stolen and how dramatically they have fallen. Is this because the will to steal them has fallen or that it is increasingly difficult to steal them without the key anyway, and more difficult to change the identity should you successfully steal it? Which of course means that the potential for housebreaking or mugging to obtain keys may rise as a result of car theft lowering. My car, there isn't anywhere to put a key in. It just has to be in my pocket. Car security is much better now. Yet that can exacerbate other crime. Good news all the same. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST,Patsy Date: 25 Apr 14 - 06:02 PM From what I've observed it seems to me that the smoking ban and restrictive smoking in UK has in around about way has had a beneficial effect on personal discipline. I am not suggesting that a non-smoker is any less capable of murder than anyone else but it does give an equation of people a disciplined mindset. This is my theory anyway. I don't know how true my theory is but when smoking was permitted in pubs I was aware of more autocations than now making the odd trip out to the pub on occasions quite uncomfortable. Zero tolerance of certain behaviour has also had a beneficial effect on personal safety in general IMO. The only concern I have is that the murder and abuse crimes that do break the news are so extreme despite the fall in violent crime. Animal cruelty springs to mind. To me this is just as violent an act as anything else, the cases exposed lately have been so tragic and what is more tragic the sentence is so low for this mindless crime. In particular I am thinking about the case of a family boxer dog which was left without food and water while the owner breezed off on holiday leaving the dog without making any arrangements for him causing great suffering to the poor dog which had been desperate to escape the house. The owner was a solicitor so we are talking about someone who you would think would know better. Cold and calculating IMO is just as violent in my book. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Rapparee Date: 25 Apr 14 - 09:22 PM You might want to peek at this for a look at violent youth crime in US and this for violent crime rates in US from 1993. The first link is to a PDF. |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST,Wurzel Warrior Date: 25 Apr 14 - 09:24 PM Fall in violent crime ? The statisticians obviously don't frequent English west country seaside resorts !!!??? |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: GUEST,Eliza Date: 26 Apr 14 - 04:21 AM As there's nothing much else worth watching on TV lately we often watch those Police programmes showing either motoring offences or drunk-and-disorderly type of behaviour. We find it horrifying. While it doesn't actually end in murder thank goodness, one can see the potential in the drunk and aggressive young people pouring onto the streets bruising for a fight. I think the club bouncers do an excellent job in (to some extent) limiting and controlling unacceptable behaviour at 'the door', while surveillance cameras all over towns and cities can follow and view people in the street and alert police quickly to any potentially dangerous situations. I wonder if these cameras have contributed a great deal to reducing violent crime (and therefore murders)? |
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Subject: RE: BS: UK fall in violent crime From: Rapparee Date: 26 Apr 14 - 09:40 AM Eliza, how would survellience cameras prevent crime inside buildings? Spousal abuse, for instance, is nearly always indoors. |
