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BS: Bobert's Election Prediction...
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Subject: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 02 Nov 12 - 07:26 PM Obama wins the biggie... Dems pick up 1 more Senate seat... More than likely, Elizabeth Warren Dems pick up 14-16 more House seats... That's the way it looks to me... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: bobad Date: 02 Nov 12 - 07:39 PM If it were up to Canadians it would be a cakewalk for Obama: "Who is the most popular politician among Canadians? That's easy: Barack Obama. Angus Reid is releasing a poll Thursday that shows Canadians overwhelmingly continue to support the American president. A copy of the poll was provided in advance to The Globe and Mail. If they could, 65 per cent of Canadian voters would cast a ballot for Mr. Obama. A not-so-whopping 9 per cent would go with Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The rest were undecided." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 02 Nov 12 - 07:51 PM My prediction: Romney: 295 electoral votes Obama: 253 electoral votes Senate: no change* House: 23 seat pickup for Republicans *Maine Senate seat left open by Olympic Snowblind goes Democat with ease. Nebraska seat vacated by Ben "Cornhusker Kickback" Nelson goes Republican with all ease. There are a dozen or more close races, some may come down to a few thousand votes, but probably a "push" or one seat to Republicans. A +1 Repub victory leaves the Senates in the control of "Dirty Hairy" Reid and the Democrats. ObamaCare lives. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 02 Nov 12 - 07:55 PM OOOPS! TYPO! Electoral College total: 285 Romney, 253 Obama Equally likely: 295 Romney, 243 Obama (with Wisconsin win) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,999 Date: 02 Nov 12 - 08:28 PM PDQ, I'd like a bluegrass CD this time :-) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: katlaughing Date: 02 Nov 12 - 08:34 PM if mittens gets in, i wanna move to canada! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 02 Nov 12 - 08:39 PM Predictions, kat... (don't let pdq hear this but Romney is toast... no fear...) B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 02 Nov 12 - 08:40 PM Consider yourself welcome here, Kat...if it was up to me. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Q (Frank Staplin) Date: 02 Nov 12 - 08:52 PM I'll go with an Obama win, but a squeaker, with a re-count or three. The House will keep a Republican edge. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 02 Nov 12 - 08:53 PM Yo, LH... You got any predictions seein' as this is a "predictions" thread??? B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 02 Nov 12 - 08:55 PM Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,999 - PM Date: 02 Nov 12 - 08:28 PM PDQ, I'd like a bluegrass CD this time :-) ________________________________________________________________________________________ Fine, but I can send some great modern Bluegrass music anyway. I will take one more bet from someone: one CD from the one who loses. I am looking to expand my musical horizons. Obviously, I am taking Romney and the other better taking Obama. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: MarkS Date: 02 Nov 12 - 08:56 PM With all the predictions, polls, columns, opinions, and prayers, I can only say: I DO NOT HAVE A FRIGGIN CLUE! Mark At least I will not have to eat any words on Wednesday! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 02 Nov 12 - 09:03 PM Eatin words is like eatin' coco puffs, Mark... Come on, man... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Jeri Date: 02 Nov 12 - 09:12 PM PDQ, I'll take you up on the CD offer, if it's still available. Genre up to you. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Beer Date: 02 Nov 12 - 09:21 PM "O" gets in by a slim margin. If he loses he is welcome to come up here and pick a party to run for. The only other prediction I will make is that network viewing will be higher then last time. Adrien |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 02 Nov 12 - 09:27 PM Jeri is the third and final bet-taker. I promise not to gloat on Wednesday morning. Not even slightly. I bought a few CDs in the 1990s wholesale, but they will be throw-ins at best. If I lose, the CD will be carefully-considered and bought specifically for the recipient. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 02 Nov 12 - 09:33 PM President Romney. Has a presidential ring to it, don't it? Like President Reagan. I'm scared. =(:-( o) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Amos Date: 02 Nov 12 - 09:44 PM On the electoral front, Obama will lead by more than ten percent. On the popular count, he will lead by at least fice per cent. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 02 Nov 12 - 09:49 PM I have no idea, Bobert. Just don't know. Six months ago I'd have said Obama for sure. Now I don't have any clear feeling which way it'll go. I do predict that Chongo is gonna get less than 1% of the vote, though. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: gnu Date: 02 Nov 12 - 09:55 PM I have a lot of Kijiji ads ready to go online if... you know. If, you know, it's better to have cash than goods and chattels when the new wars begin. Ask Wall Street. >;-( |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bee-dubya-ell Date: 02 Nov 12 - 10:00 PM Chongo will not carry a single state. More people will cast write-in votes for Pedro from the film "Napolean Dynamite" than will vote for any of the "third-party" candidates on the ballot. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 02 Nov 12 - 10:06 PM Well, Chongz goal was to come in under 1%... Good work... B;~) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: MarkS Date: 02 Nov 12 - 10:24 PM Bobert Old poem Be careful of the words you speak Make sure the're short and sweet Because you never ever know Words you may have to eat! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Jack the Sailor Date: 02 Nov 12 - 10:25 PM Nate Silver on the 538 blog is saying 303 Obama 234 Mitt. 81 % chance of winning. Nate is pretty good. I'll go with Nate. I think Warren will win. I think that the blue dogs will lose ground in the south. The GOP will lose in blue states. Congress will be more or less the same with maybe a few more gains than losses for the dems. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 02 Nov 12 - 10:28 PM Yo, Mark, This is a prediction thread... It ain't a huff 'n puff 'n blow yer house down thread... It's okay... Just knock down a couple chilly ones and come back... B:~) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ebbie Date: 02 Nov 12 - 10:48 PM A friend of mine who works for the Federal government says that her take is that since Hurricane Sandy there is no way that President Barack Hussein Obama will lose. She says that even the knee-jerky government nay-sayers have come 'round. I hope she is right. The scary thing is the insanity of the bloggers who dirty up the internet air- what will they do if/when the President wins? If/When Governor Romney loses? I would not want to be in the neighborhood of a thousand different bloggers... |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: MarkS Date: 02 Nov 12 - 10:59 PM I predict I will have another beer - or maybe two! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity Date: 03 Nov 12 - 12:20 AM Prediction: Who ever wins has already knowingly lied to you..and you still trust him!!...no matter how many more times he lies to you!!! GfS |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 03 Nov 12 - 12:26 AM I predict riots if Romney wins. I predict more of the same puppetry if Prez al-Obama wins. =(:-( D) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity Date: 03 Nov 12 - 12:58 AM "I predict riots if Romney wins." You mean those old 'Peace and Freedom', 'Peace Love' children of the sixties weren't really into 'Peace and Love'?? Oh, so it was all bullshit?..or are they bullshittin' now? The riots will really get going when the Government cuts off issuing digits on those food stamp cards..and disability, and welfare...all they got to do it just cut it off. Gosh, ya' think they already know that? GfS |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: The Sandman Date: 03 Nov 12 - 05:23 AM the book makers have obama 2 to 5 on, they are generally correct |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,999 Date: 03 Nov 12 - 06:39 AM "PDQ, I'll take you up on the CD offer, if it's still available. Genre up to you." Jeri, I am only too aware that PDQ has excellent taste in music having twice so far been the recipient of CDs. This will make three times--well, as of Wednesday--and I am looking forward to whatever PDQ's choice is. In fact, I'm gonna send my new address to PDQ right now. :-) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity Date: 03 Nov 12 - 12:01 PM "the book makers have obama 2 to 5 on, ..." Hmm...the bookies, the protection racketeers, swindlers, Chicago mobsters all agree!...besides, they have a vested interest! GfS |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 03 Nov 12 - 01:04 PM If it were not for Hurricane Sandy this election would be a real squeaker. Now, I'm thinking, it's a runaway win for Obama. I'm looking forward to collecting my winnings. Cheerily, Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,999 Date: 03 Nov 12 - 01:18 PM Just read some poll results and Romney is toast. The stupid SOB lied to the folks in Ohio by saying Jeep production was being shipped overseas to China. '"Chrysler's chief executive on Tuesday strongly refuted claims that production of Jeeps would shift to China, an insistence that cast further doubt on the Romney campaign's recent efforts to undercut President Obama's support for the auto industry as it fights for Ohio's 18 electoral votes. In an e-mail to employees, the chief executive, Sergio Marchionne, said that Jeep's commitment to the United States was unequivocal. "I feel obliged to unambiguously restate our position: Jeep production will not be moved from the United States to China," he wrote. "It is inaccurate to suggest anything different." Mr. Marchionne's response — an unusually forceful gesture from the chief executive of a major American corporation a week before Election Day — came as the politics of the auto bailout took center stage in the presidential campaign."' Bye-bye to Mitt the Sh#t. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 03 Nov 12 - 01:19 PM If you really want to see the trend in predictions, check out Nate Silver's blog: click here! If you can understand a graph, you can see that Obama got a 9% bump after Hurricane Sandy, raising his probability of winning to 83%. Anyone like the long odds for Romney; you could make a bundle since I'm willing to cover all bets. Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,999 Date: 03 Nov 12 - 01:27 PM Charley, where you gonna find a taker? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 03 Nov 12 - 01:41 PM OK, Charley...with bookmaker odds, what would I win if I bet you $25.00? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 03 Nov 12 - 02:39 PM pdq- Bookmakers currently make it 11:4. If we do the math, I believe that if you win $25 will get you $68.75. If we use Silver's figures of 83% chance of Obama winning, (scribbling wildly), then $25 will get you about $122. Of course Romney would have to win for you to collect. Anyone here better at math than I am? Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: WalkaboutsVerse Date: 03 Nov 12 - 02:42 PM At least on the coverage we get in England, there are hardly any African Americans at the Republican rallies...was this the case before Obama? And will Americans ever be ready for Native American leadership? My poem on "Americans" - http://www.myspace.com/walkaboutsverse/blog/455408778 |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 03 Nov 12 - 03:06 PM Dear Charley Ipcar... I will take your bet at "bookmakes's odds". $25 bet from me means you owe $68.75 if Romney wins. Confirm the bet? I have a few CDs in excess (new, sealed) that I will send regardless of outcome on Election Day. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 03 Nov 12 - 04:23 PM pdq- Excellent! Consider it done. We can decide later if we prefer our winnings in trade. May the better man win! Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: gnu Date: 03 Nov 12 - 07:01 PM Charley... you obviously mean Obama! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 03 Nov 12 - 07:12 PM ...er, that is "better" as in one who bets...it's called humor... |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 03 Nov 12 - 07:50 PM Here is how the numbers add up, taken from numerous sources: Voters will be 36% Democrat / 35% Republican / 29% Independant Democrats will vote 90% Obama, Republicans 94% Romney, Indies 60% Romney So, Romney gets 10% Demos: 3.6% (of total votes cast) Romney gets 94% Repubs: 32.9% Romney gets 60% of Indies: 17.4% --------- TOTAL: 53.9% Don't bet the farm on The Bammer this time, no matter what the New York Times says. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 03 Nov 12 - 10:58 PM pdq- Looks as if you're backing a winner! But you best not count your turkeys before they hatch... Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Amos Date: 04 Nov 12 - 01:16 AM PDQ, I submit that your math is as tortuous as your politics. Stick with Silverman! A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Amos Date: 04 Nov 12 - 01:18 AM Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Ohio Columbus Dispatch* Obama 50, Romney 48 Obama +2 Pennsylvania Tribune-Review/Susquehanna Obama 47, Romney 47 Tie Maine Critical Insights Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7 Saturday, November 03 New Hampshire WMUR/UNH Obama 48, Romney 48 Tie Iowa Des Moines Register Obama 47, Romney 42 Obama +5 Florida TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon Romney 51, Obama 45 Romney +6 Florida NBC/WSJ/Marist Romney 47, Obama 49 Obama +2 Ohio NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 45 Obama +6 Wisconsin PPP (D) Obama 51, Romney 48 Obama +3 Pennsylvania PPP (D) Obama 52, Romney 46 Obama +6 Michigan PPP (D) Obama 52, Romney 46 Obama +6 Minnesota PPP (D) Obama 53, Romney 45 Obama +8 Washington PPP (D) Obama 53, Romney 46 Obama +7 California Field Obama 54, Romney 39 Obama +15 |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: WalkaboutsVerse Date: 04 Nov 12 - 05:58 AM Further to my above post, I personally prefer Democratic policies, but am surprised that some African Americans don't prefer Republican policies..? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 04 Nov 12 - 08:45 AM It basically stems from the fact that in the early 1960s two Democratic administrations (those of John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson) launched political initiatives which ended in Civil Rights legislation that ended segregation in the South. A lot of white southerners never forgave the Democrats, while blacks in general have supported the Democrats ever since. Prior to that time the Deep South normally voted Democratic every time. Since that time, they have voted Republican virtually every time. Study these maps of past elections and see how the Deep South reversed its traditional party loyalties in the early 1960s, dumping the long-favored Democrats and turning to the Republicans. http://www.100bestwebsites.org/alt/evmaps/electoral-maps.htm |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 04 Nov 12 - 08:58 AM Yes, LH... I have pointed that out over and over... The Republicans refer to is as their Southern Strategy... It's no secret... But to shore it up Frat Boy George W. did political organizing in the South in the late 80s... His mission was shore up the Christian Right block so what was he to do but get "Born Again"... Yup, that killed two birds with one stone... It absolved him of his evil past and it allowed him to dovetail nicely into that block... This morning's commentators are dancing ever so lightly about the lead that Obama has in the swing state polling... Makes you wonder if they are afraid of losing advertisers if they tell it like it is??? B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 04 Nov 12 - 09:31 AM The spread in Silver's graph this morning for an Obama win is 85.1%, versus 14.9% for Romney. The gap continues to spread. Read 'em and weep, Romney supporters! Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Richard Bridge Date: 04 Nov 12 - 10:55 AM Well, not counting chickens before they are exported, but the rest of the world will sleep a little easier - although there has been too much of the hawk about Obama, too, for a year or so. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Stringsinger Date: 04 Nov 12 - 11:23 AM A lot will depend on Obama voters overriding the cheating by GOP'ers on the crooked voting machines. If enough people turn out for Obama, he could win. The Electoral College is often determined by the DRE's, (with voting machine irregularities). The GOP cheated in Wisconsin under Scott Walker. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,999 Date: 04 Nov 12 - 11:28 AM The Electoral College will have a hand in things I guess. Right? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 04 Nov 12 - 11:36 AM Absolutely, brucie... And if the early polling is correct in the swing states, Obama is up or tied in all of them... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: SINSULL Date: 04 Nov 12 - 12:01 PM Obama will take it. Angus King, an Independent with Democratic leanings, will get the seat in Maine. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 04 Nov 12 - 12:27 PM Warren will take Massachusetts... Dems will have at least a 1 seat pickup in the Senate and between 14 -16 seat pickup in the House... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,fortunato Date: 04 Nov 12 - 02:12 PM I predict that President Obama will be re-elected. I fear partisan obstructionism will continue. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 04 Nov 12 - 04:10 PM The Senate is about as safe for Democrats as can be expected when their top spot is going to lose. The Senate will be 52-48 Democrat unless Mandel in Ohio, Allen in Virginia and/or Connie Mack in Florida pull upsets. All are losing by about 5% or so right now. Two of the three would have to win just for the Republicans to get a tie in the Senate. If they still had Lugar and Snowe they would be assured of a tie (at least), and if Akin and Mourdock could have just shut up about religion, they would also have won. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Songwronger Date: 04 Nov 12 - 06:14 PM Romney will win, riots will follow. Romney was put up as another John McCain--intended to lose so Obama can continue his stealth fascism. But over the past year Obama has become the most unpopular president in U.S. history. He will garner only 10% of the popular vote, but his followers will say that's within the margin of error and riot because they "was cheated." After years of violent ideation about Republicans, Bobert will form the Bobert Brigade. Though experiencing some initial victories against nursing home militias, the brigade will then be destroyed in a skirmish with a second grade class enraged over Michelle Obama's new imperial dictates regarding school lunches. Bobert will be duly executed by the second graders, and his eulogy will be delivered by THIS WOMAN. Everyone will agree it's a fitting tribute. America will get back to normal when the batteries on the Obamaphones run down and the insurgents can't think of another way to communicate. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: gnu Date: 04 Nov 12 - 06:41 PM "But over the past year Obama has become the most unpopular president in U.S. history." Where the fuck has your head been during the last half dozen presidents? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 04 Nov 12 - 06:47 PM That was funny, wronger... Burt seriously... The same rednecks who hated Obama after the 2008 elections still hate him... Did we expect anything more from, ahhhh... ...rednecks??? B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 04 Nov 12 - 06:50 PM BTW, Pwe Research has Romney slipping down to 45% with Obama at 49%... Romney is moving in the wrong direction... The BIG LIE about Jeep was like falling in the sword for the Mitt... Now everyone on the planet sees Romney as a lying sack of poo... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 04 Nov 12 - 08:07 PM The spread in Silver's graph this evening for an Obama win is 85.5%, versus 14.4% for Romney. The gap continues to spread. Yes, there will be some well earned bitterness after this hotly contested election. I wonder if the Supreme Court has the stomach to throw the election to the Republicans again? Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Q (Frank Staplin) Date: 04 Nov 12 - 09:33 PM The split in the u. S. electorate is alarming. Only the northeast and the west coast support Obama The heart of the country from Texas to the Canadian border is solidly Romney, with the exception (and that not certain) of New Mexico. Even in Ohio, the Obama vote is from the urban centers, rural and small town Ohio was firmly Republican in the last election, and may vote the same way this time despite the auto industry help from the Democrats. Go to bed early election night. The election will not be decided until the rural vote and the west coast tabulations are complete. Regardless of who wins, almost half of Americans will be upset. Branding (rednecks, fascists, whatever) does nothing to heal the split. The real cause of disintegration, both in North America and Europe, is the increasing economic power of the Asian countries. It looks unstoppable. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 04 Nov 12 - 10:06 PM Well said, Q, and right on every count. There is going to be tremendous bitterness and anger after this election, no matter which side officially wins it, because about half the American population is going to be absolutely furious and disgusted about the result. That's not a good situation, and it doesn't bode well for America. You said that "Only the northeast and the west coast support Obama"....well, that's pretty normal in USA elections, unless you have a landslide for one party. The populous northeast and the west coast are always where the Democrats have their strength (as well as in big urban centers). It's been that way ever since 1964. The Republicans always have their strength in the South, the central regions, and the rural and small town areas. This was very evident when I lived in New York State. New York City was strongly Democratic. Rural and small town New York was mostly staunchly Republican. They hated each other (politically speaking), and I expect they still do. The endless faceoff between those 2 parties continues to ever more deeply divide the American public into 2 resentful solitudes who despise one another, routinely stereotype and demonize one another as "rednecks" or "liberals", and it just keeps getting worse. It's like a nationwide mental illness, and the 2-party system is the engine that drives it. No wonder that little girl was reduced to tears by the rancour she's been hearing on the airwaves! Meanwhile, the whole world except for Israel hopes and/or prays that Obama will win, not Romney...so it's not just Americans who are biting their nails over this one. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 04 Nov 12 - 10:23 PM By the way, Q, this is really interesting: historic electoral results of past USA elections - maps Take a look at which states went to the Democrats and which to the Republicans in the elections since (and including) 1964, and you'll see the modern pattern right away. Fascinating. Then look at what happened in the elections prior to 1960. Just the other way around! The watershed was when Kennedy and Johnson supported the Civil Rights movement to end segregation. Things changed radically after that. The Democrats lost the South, and the Republicans lost the Northeast. Remember what Lincoln said "A house divided against itself cannot stand." The USA is a house bitterly divided against itself, and it just keeps getting worse. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 04 Nov 12 - 10:29 PM Both Q and LH are somehow ignoring the swing states of the Midwest, which are currently leaning toward Obama. But we count them when the hatch! Wonder what the map would look like if it were based on Congressional Districts rather than winner-take-all states. In Maine we actually do Congressional Districts as an alternative, not that anyone cares! Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 04 Nov 12 - 10:32 PM Actually, it comes down to a few cities v. the rest of the country. Without Seattle, Washington state is Republican. Without Chicago, Illinois is conservative. Without Denver, Colorado is a Western pioneer state. Without Detroit, Michigan would be a solid state for Romney this election. Without Portland, Oregon is a rural state with lots of hunters and fisherman. Crime in Democrat-controlled urban areas is 10 times that of rural America. President Romney will represent most of the United States. He knows that he will have an impossible task bringing people together. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 04 Nov 12 - 10:32 PM The one election that was notably different that way in the modern period, by the way, was Jimmy Carter's big win in 1972. That time only....the Democrats took the Deep South AND (as usual) much of the populous Northeast. That was because Jimmy Carter was FROM the Deep South, and Nixon's Watergate disaster had utterly scuppered the Republicans for the time being. People weren't about to forgive his not very charismatic vice president, Gerald Ford, for having pardoned him. They wanted to "change the guards" at that point. It takes a lot to get the Deep South to vote Democratic in the post-Kennedy era, but it can happen, given a combination of rare factors. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: katlaughing Date: 04 Nov 12 - 10:33 PM for the record, Q, Colorado is NOT solidly for mitt and it went for Obama in 2008. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 04 Nov 12 - 10:51 PM In a close election, as we all know, the "swing" states are the key. Look at those same maps of past USA elections...the ones that were close, I mean...and you'll see where the opportunities lie. But what I was talking about were the regions that almost always vote either Democratic or Republican. The Deep South almost always votes Republican. The centere and the west (east of the Rockies) almost always vote Republican. The west coast and the populous northeast almost always vote Democratic. In a landslide, that pattern isn't so obvious. In a close election it's very obvious, and that's when the swing states are vital. And yes, pdq, the big cities are where the Democrats do very well. This doesn't prove that Democrats are "bad, criminal" people any more than it proves that Republicans are "ignorant rednecks". What it indicates is a traditional divide between country/small town folk and city folk. That is a cultural divide that's been around forever, as far as I can see. The very same thing happens in Canada. Our left and slightly-left-centre parties usually do well in the large urban centres. Our right (conservative) party does well in small town and rural areas. Small town and rural areas have an older demographic, a more traditional demographic, and a mostly white demographic. This again, doesn't make them "better" people. It just gives them a different view of things, that's all. You know where most of our young people go? To the big city! And the young people tend to support much more liberal political causes than the older and retired people do. I'd say that's because they're looking to the future, rather than trying to hang on to the past. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Songwronger Date: 04 Nov 12 - 11:05 PM I like how fascist mayor Bloomberg endorsed Obama and then turned his back on flooded New Yorkers so he could stage the New York City marathon. Also the fascist governor Christie of New Jersey played kissy face with Obama during the storm. So Obama's now got bona fide fascist street cred. After the election he'll gut social programming. He won't even have to blame it on Republicans this time, either. You Obamanoids think you were disillusioned before, that was just the warm up act. As Ron Paul said, "America needs a second party." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 05 Nov 12 - 12:11 AM Oh, I quite agree with Ron Paul about that. Yes, America needs a genuine second party! Or better yet, no damn parties at all....which is what I'd prefer. But it ain't gonna happen this time. You're going to get either Obama or Romney. Either way, it ain't good...but I prefer Obama over Romney, given the choice, and there is no other electable choice possible the way things are set up at present. Nor...I expect...will there be in the forseeable future. The Big 2 Parties have absolute control over the electoral agenda. No 3rd party has any hope in the USA. And they are different....(hear that, Ron and Don???? Hear that????). Yes!!!! They're different. You know why? They have to appeal to the 2 very different halves of the country, that's why. The 2 halves that hate each other's guts and regard each other as hopeless, drooling morons or even worse, traitors! There's no way those 2 parties wouldn't be different under those circumstances...just like 2 football teams from 2 different cities are different. They both want to win the game, they'll both do anything TO win the game, and they'll both make life absolute hell for the other side even if they lose the game. And the game will still go on regardless. It's the game itself I don't believe in, you see. But...given that this political game is unavoidable unless the world suddenly turns over on its axis and wipes the present political system right off the map...I'd prefer that Obama win it rather than Romney. Either one might still win it. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Amos Date: 05 Nov 12 - 12:42 AM On the electoral front, Obama will lead by more than ten percent. On the popular count, he will lead by at least five per cent. A |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 05 Nov 12 - 09:14 AM The spread in Silver's graph this morning for an Obama win is 86.3%, versus 13.7% for Romney. The gap continues to spread. Cheerily, Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,999 Date: 05 Nov 12 - 11:45 AM "I like how fascist mayor Bloomberg endorsed Obama and then turned his back on flooded New Yorkers so he could stage the New York City marathon." I'd hate for fact to get in the way of anyone's diatribe, but the Mayor cancelled the marathon. Many runners have instead turned their muscle to helping flood victims. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Q (Frank Staplin) Date: 05 Nov 12 - 11:52 AM Charlie, to westerners and southerners, your swing states are mostly "eastern." And, as pointed out, it is their cities where the Democrat vote usually prevails, while the great majority of the counties are Republican. Always thought Maine should be a part of Canada. The only part I have visited is the north, where many people are of French ancestry, so that colors my perception of the state. Perhaps it needs a treaty giving the northern part to New Brunswick, chopping off the yankees part to that below the Vermont top boundary. (Is that steam rising from back there?) Colorado- My guess, it will go Republican this time. It will be a squeaker, whichever way it goes. Few electoral votes, but every one will be important in this election. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 05 Nov 12 - 05:39 PM Q- When I lived out in Michigan for 12 years, I sure knew I wasn't leaving on the East Coast. In fact in Lansing, there was no coast at all. I do have to admit that the lakes to the east and west were pretty great. They also talked funny, unlike myself; I have no discernible accent. Maine this time around won't be sending a Republican Senator back to Washington, thanks to the decision by Olympia Snowe not to run again. Instead we'll be sending our former governor who is registered as an independent. He's not saying which party he will caucus with but he's no tea party Republican. Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 05 Nov 12 - 06:48 PM I was just wondering if Bobert is predicting this election, or the next one? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 05 Nov 12 - 06:51 PM ""I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."" Thomas Jefferson quote |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 05 Nov 12 - 07:19 PM I'm stickin' with my predictions for this election... Obama wins Senate Dems pick up 1 seat House Dems pick up 14-16 seats Yes, Big ****corporate**** Media is doing their best for Romney Yes, Boss Hogg is writing $10M checks for Romney upon request People have seen lousy & desperate used car salesman Romney so I'm stickin'... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: number 6 Date: 05 Nov 12 - 07:30 PM here's an election prediction that is rather hard hitting .... America Has Already Lost Tuesday's Election Now ... go ahead and continue with your useless predictions biLL who can't wait until this whole U.S. election fiasco is over with |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Richard Bridge Date: 05 Nov 12 - 09:13 PM It's a very good article. One point however: the writer says "Obama couldn't change this, and Romney wouldn't be able to either." In fact Romney doesn't want to change it. He supports it. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: bobad Date: 05 Nov 12 - 09:19 PM LIMA — Using maracas, coca leaves and a hallucinogenic brew, shamans in Peru got down to business Monday using pre-Columbian traditional ceremonies to pick a winner in the US presidential race. "The apus (gods of the hills in indigenous mythology) tell us (Barack) Obama will be reelected," predicted Juan Osco, known as the Shaman of the Andes on San Cristobal hill overlooking Lima. Members of the group placed flower petals on photos of the candidates that were also swept over with tobacco smoke. The shamans chewed coca leaves, a traditional ceremonial and medicinal plant since Inca times that helps fight altitude sickness. And the crew took some swigs of ayahuasca, a psychoactive brew used widely among Amazon basin indigenous people. At least one thing was clear, they said: Obama should defeat Republican Mitt Romney on Tuesday. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 05 Nov 12 - 09:28 PM "Regardless of who wins the election on Tuesday, total capitalism is America's true ruler, and it has the power to destroy the country." Good point but why vote for the tool that is born and raised as a capitalist? Of course it's a rare country that anyone can point to where socialism rules and prospers... Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 05 Nov 12 - 10:07 PM Oh, I just rechecked Silver's probability of an Obama win and it's now up to 91.4%: click here for link I suppose when the probability increases beyond 100% I should become skeptical. Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 01:01 AM Excellent article by Jakob Augstein in Germany. I think he has described the American problem in a nutshell. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: DMcG Date: 06 Nov 12 - 02:57 AM This is off-thread and not really a prediction, but it may raise a smile: The wonders of punctuation as demonstrated by the Today programme on BBC Radio 4: "Americans go to the pools today to elect their President Barack Obama (stop, re-think) ... To elect their President (deliberate pause) Barack Obama ..." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 06 Nov 12 - 03:07 AM I'm voting Green Party this time. Thank you. =(:-( )) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: bobad Date: 06 Nov 12 - 07:57 AM MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Bob Dylan says he thinks President Barack Obama is going to win a landslide. Dylan made the prediction Monday night midway through the song "Blowin' in the Wind" during a concert in the battleground state of Wisconsin. Dylan spoke to the Madison audience as he was wrapping up his concert that came just hours after Obama appeared at a morning rally in the same city with rocker Bruce Springsteen. Dylan made his comments during his encore when he said, "We tried to play good tonight since the president was here today." He went on to say he thinks Obama will prevail Tuesday. Dylan says, "Don't believe the media. I think it's going to be a landslide." After his comments, Dylan completed the song to the roar of the crowd. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 06 Nov 12 - 08:04 AM DMcJ- "Americans go to the pools today ..." I love the image that typo evokes, blub, blub! Just got back from adding the final flurry of campaign signs to the entry drive of our local "polling" place. Cheerily, Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:25 AM Sorry, Krinkx, but you ain't Green Party material... B~ (Green Party precinct captain for Nader in 2000, Loudoun Co., Va.) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:34 AM Headline: ""Bob Dylan stole Bobert's Election Prediction"" |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:34 AM Too bad, bobette. I voted for Jill Stein. Green Party candidate. So there. Blah!! =(:-( P) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:48 AM Most polls show the election tied (within margin of error). Some of those polls have up to +11 in sampling Democrats. 2008 had about 4% more Democrats voting, independents went way toward Obama. 2010 showed Dems and Repubs tied in actual voter turnout. This year, a +2 or so is reasonable for Democrats, but independents are way toward Republican, 5% to over 20% in some polls. This should not even be close. Something smells fishy since all the pollsters seem tohave coodinated their results to give Obama fans a bouce in their step as tey head toward the voting booth. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: beardedbruce Date: 06 Nov 12 - 10:59 AM Bobert, Does this have anything to do with your predictions? http://washingtonexaminer.com/philly-gop-poll-inspectors-being-ousted-for-dems/article/2512714#.UJkyhLSs38u As for the polls, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:03 AM That smell you smell is Citizen's United cash dripping off Romney... No, this shouldn't be close, pdq, and if had been a straight up contest without the massive spending by people the Supreme Court says we don't have a right to know, it wouldn't be... The last time a candidate had as much headwind was Lincoln in 1860... But back then it wasn't secretly purchased headwind... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: beardedbruce Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:12 AM btw, 100 |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:20 AM My predictions are all mine, bb, and I posted them on another thread even before this thread some two months ago... I don't pay much attention to polls because most of them are bias... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:37 AM Your man doesn't stand a chance. =(:-( D) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:28 PM ""They called him 'country bobertkin' For stickin' to his roots He's just glad he's in a country Where folks are free to choose He was predicting, when predicting wasn't cool"" |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:39 PM bobettekin. bobettekin. =(:-( D) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:43 PM Whatever... B;~) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:49 PM Here's an interview last night between Colbert and Nate Silver: click here for video! The probability of Obama winning is now up to 90.9%. I like the quote from Silver that if it came to a choice between voting for pundits and voting for, say, ebola, he'd vote for ebola. Cheerily, Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 12:50 PM Chongo and his supporters are gathered at Duffy's Bar in Chicago and are already celebrating his imminent victory. It's quite a scene! Chimps, Bonobos, Gorillas, Baboons, Howlers, Capuchins, Macaques, even the odd Orangutan....and, of course, Chongo's human supporters as well. Every now and then there's a chorus of hooting and screeching that can be heard blocks away. The liquor is flowing freely. This will be THE place to be tonight when Chongo gives his victory speech, thanks all those who contributed to this historic moment, and magnanimously chuckles down his sleeve at his detractors. It's a damn good thing Duffy's has an outdoor patio and courtyard, cos there ain't nearly enough room in that place to hold this election night crowd. They are hangin' off the chandeliers! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: VirginiaTam Date: 06 Nov 12 - 02:06 PM Statistician bloogers give Obama clear lead. And yesterday, some UK bookies were already paying out bets that Obama will win. That is how certain we are in the UK about this race. statistician bloggers |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 06 Nov 12 - 03:53 PM VirginiaTam- The concluding paragraph of your link above makes interesting reading: "It remains unclear whether the news outlets are bent on making election night a tension-filled spectacle to increase network ratings, whether they are simply avoiding a complex and statistical-based analysis of the data, or whether they are merely being cautious. I simply don't know. What I do know is that I've already cast my early ballot, and I look forward to seeing the predictions of my statistical bloggers being fulfilled. While this election will clearly have an impact on US science, it's also great to see mathematicians-statisticians as heroes in the limelight." Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 04:58 PM Well, it is the nature of the media to prefer a tension-filled spectacle to a foregone conclusion, that's for sure. What's the point in taking people through a yearlong soap opera if you don't have a tension-filled, knuckle-biting spectacle on the final night? To not do so would violate all the laws of commercial Entertainment! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity Date: 06 Nov 12 - 05:05 PM Hey Little Hawk this link you'd understand!! You still think it's not rigged????...Check this out! GfS |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 05:21 PM My goodness! That kind of reminds me of when the BBC announcer in London, England announced the fall of World Trade Center Tower # 7....shortly before it had fallen! You could still clearly see WTC7 standing in the background of the live video playing behind her while she was saying that it had already collapsed into its own footprint. She was unaware of that, and simply read the statement that had been given to her to read. Verrry interesting. It'll be interesting to see how closely NBC's premature election announcement resembles the official results on the actual day. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 05:40 PM Well, I just got back from an afternoon of knocking on doors for Obama... Seems that just about every targeted voter had voted... That's a good sign that the ground game is working... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 06 Nov 12 - 05:48 PM ...about Charley Noble's favorite eviction pundit, Nate Silver: "...Polls have been widely in flux for the past few weeks, until Obama seemed to take a strong and decisive lead over Romney in just the past few days. In fact, poll whiz Nate Silver upped President Obama's chances of a win to over 90% late last night on his popular 538 blog, essentially betting the ranch and his career on an incumbent win this election night. Silver currently projects Barack Obama to win a landslide 313 votes in the Electoral College to Mitt Romney's projected 225 electoral votes, with a 90.9% chance of an Obama win and only 9.1% for Romney. Silver says early voting trends and polls in Ohio (where exit polls may again come in as early as 5 PM) are the sticking point for Romney, and even the most die-hard GOP poll watchers believe that without Ohio, Romney has no path to 270..." |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 06 Nov 12 - 06:21 PM ""Whatever gets you through your life 'salright, 'salright Do it wrong or do it right 'salright, 'salright Don't need a watch to waste your time oh no, oh no"" |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 06 Nov 12 - 06:34 PM Well, hold onto your seats, it's gonna get wild. Ohio closes at 7:30 ET, about one hour from now. Without Ohio, Obama can't win. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 06 Nov 12 - 07:39 PM pdq- No, it's Romney that can't win without Ohio. Obama could actually lose both Ohio and Florida and still win. But the results will be much more clear in December! Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:17 PM MSNBC just announced that Obama has been re-elected! Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:18 PM One down, two to go... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: pdq Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:23 PM There should be an aserisk after this election, since Romney will have about 5% more votes than The Bammer. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:27 PM Huffington Post has Obama winning. They have him at 275 electoral votes now. Romney still leads by about 2 and a half percent in the popular vote. Chongo isn't even showing on the map! This will be a huge shock to his supporters who have been partying all day and into the night at Duffy's Bar in Chicago. I fear they may riot. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Little Hawk Date: 06 Nov 12 - 11:59 PM Okay, Bobert, here was your original prediction: Obama wins the biggie... Dems pick up 1 more Senate seat... More than likely, Elizabeth Warren Dems pick up 14-16 more House seats... That's the way it looks to me... It appears that you're right on Obama. Things turned out even better than you figured for the Dems in the Senate. Things turned out not as well as you figured in the House. Not bad, Bobert, as predictions go. You also predicted Chongo would get less than 1 percent of the vote. Right again! ;-) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Henry Krinkle Date: 07 Nov 12 - 12:07 AM Bush lost the popular vote. And ran the show. For 8 years. Sheep. Baaa as! =(:-( P) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity Date: 07 Nov 12 - 02:43 AM Something is happening, but you don't know what it is...... Do you, Mister Jones...... GfS |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: The Sandman Date: 07 Nov 12 - 07:23 AM the bookies are rarely wrong, i won, but for the rest of the world it is a good result [imo], obama is the lesser of two evils |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Richard Bridge Date: 07 Nov 12 - 08:25 AM I agree with Dick. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 07 Nov 12 - 09:11 AM Well, LH, at least Chongz met his overall target of less than 1%... I'm not sure on the House yet... I didn't say that the Dems would have a 14-16 majority... I said they would pick off 14-16 seats... And I can't find the actual pickups for the House... Anyone have a hard number there??? B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,olddude Date: 07 Nov 12 - 09:16 AM Hey Bobster, ya got any predictions ya can share on the lotto? I am going with you from now on ... you nailed it |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 07 Nov 12 - 09:20 AM Time to put the chicken entrails back in the freezer for the next predictions - IMO, they work as good as any other prediction (guessing) method. :) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Stringsinger Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:05 AM There was so much GOP cheating and suppression of voters that in spite of what the media says, I think Obama probably, in reality, won by a landslide. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:07 AM Alan Grayson won... Alan West didn't... Hooray... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:14 AM The Nate Silver probability predictions have been vindicated. The political landscape looks better to me this morning at the National level as well as here in Maine, where Democrats regained control over both the Senate and the House, and voters passed Marriage Equality. I also liked the US Senate wins in Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, and several other states where tea-party Republicans went down. I also enjoyed Romney's concession speech, even if it took him an extra hour to present it. He said the right sorts of things as a gentleman who loses should say. Who know, maybe Obama will appoint him as the new Ambassador to Libya... Now it's time to make another run and pick up the rest of our lawn signs. Charley Noble |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:14 AM I am disappointed with my prediction on the House... Looks like the Dems will pick up 5 seats rather than 14-16... Sad commentary on just how gerrymandered our congressional districts have become... Sad situation for democracy... Oh well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bob the Postman Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:37 AM Bobert, will you be moving to Washington or to Colorado? Or will you just wait where you are for the wave of legalization to sweep across the country. |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Ed T Date: 07 Nov 12 - 11:45 AM Blog from Wired: Probability Versus Prediction in Volcanic Hazards (and Elections) |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Q (Frank Staplin) Date: 07 Nov 12 - 12:47 PM I predicted a squeaker win for Obama, he did better than that. He held on to a majority of the women's vote. I thought he would lose more. The Hispanic vote wasn't as split as I thought it would be. The Black vote performed as expected. Hispanics are now equal to the Black demographic, and increasing significantly. Small town and rural vote can't trump the urban vote any longer. Watching the Ohio vote come in on a county basis, most of them went to Romney, but the urban vote from Cleveland, Cincinati, etc. overrode it. This will be a factor in all future elections, the urban areas are growing and small town- rural America is losing clout. I thought Colorado would revert to the Republican column, but the city and Hispanic vote held up. Another state where the small town-rural vote is losing out. Still too early to get the Texas county vote, but I wonder if Bexar (San Antonio), etc. went to Romney, or, did the large Hispanic vote go to Obama? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 07 Nov 12 - 01:02 PM pdq- Are you there? You are uncharacteristically silent this morning. Please send me a PM about our little side bet. Cheerily, Charley Noble, now fabulously wealthy! |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 07 Nov 12 - 10:12 PM Well, well, well... Looks as if the Dems have picked up 9 seats in the House... Okay, that's better... I called Obama by 4 points... Obama won by 2 points... I called the Senate picking up one Dem seat... They got two... I called the Dems picking up 14-16 seats in the House... It got 9... Not bad at all... Don't mess with the ol' hillbilly... I been a political weenie going way back... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,skivee, guesting in Date: 08 Nov 12 - 03:02 AM Does that mean that you'll also be giving your concession speech soon? |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Bobert Date: 08 Nov 12 - 08:27 AM Awwwww, shucks, folks... Yeah, I messed up and won't mess up no more... That good 'nuff??? BTW, I ain't movin' to smoke weed... We got weed here in NC.... B~ |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity Date: 09 Nov 12 - 01:08 AM Yeah, the shitty stuff! GfS |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: WalkaboutsVerse Date: 09 Nov 12 - 06:52 AM Should America be run by a council of Native Americans? Should Australia be run by a council of Aborigines? Should New Zealand/Aotearoa be run by a council of Maoris? Is imperialism wrong? My poem on "Land Rights" - http://www.myspace.com/walkaboutsverse/blog/476693050 |
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Subject: RE: BS: Bobert's Election Prediction... From: Charley Noble Date: 09 Nov 12 - 12:33 PM pdq and I have settled amicably. Anyone else want to bet on the outcome of the Obama/Romney Race? Oh, yah, it's over. Cheerily, Charley Noble |
